The potential for a US-China olive branch moment will tantalize global markets over the next 10 days.
The setting is San Francisco where, first, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. That rarified exchange today and tomorrow sets the stage for Xi Jinping’s arrival in the city for the November 14-17 Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.
There, the hope is that Xi and US President Joe Biden meet on November 15 to re-establish president-to-president level discussions. To be sure, no one expects big breakthroughs. That’s why Beijing and Washington are looking “to intentionally keep that bar low,” says economist Jude Blanchette at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington.
Yet the meeting itself would be a tonic for Asian economies caught in the middle as the two superpowers parry and thrust on a range of touchy issues. In fact, Xi’s scheduled dinner meeting with American corporate chieftains could prove to be more pivotal for bilateral relations.
The dinner meeting will be a rare opportunity for the Chinese Communist Party leader to reassure top US CEOs that Asia’s biggest economy is still open for business and that actions his lieutenants are taking now will morph economic headwinds into tailwinds in short order.
The speed with which capital has been fleeing China suggests that Xi’s efforts to communicate that Beijing is in control of its myriad challenges are not getting through. In recent months, Xi and Premier Li Qiang have rolled out a variety of policies to stabilize a cratering property market and weak demand.
Global investors, though, aren’t getting that memo as new threats emerge atop of old. In September, investment capital outflows from China saw their biggest net decline in nearly eight years; outflows hit nearly US$12 billion in the third quarter.
This is the first time on record that foreign investment into China went negative, according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. That speaks to the sharp deterioration in China’s perceived economic prospects and a continued collapse in confidence in its state-led model under Xi’s leadership.
There’s confusion in international circles, too, about Xi’s commitment to giving the private sector and market forces “decisive” roles in Beijing’s decision-making. That 2012 pledge was first called into question in 2015 when Xi’s government intervened aggressively to stabilize Shanghai stocks.
Questions only increased after Xi began cracking down hard on mainland tech platforms in late 2020, starting with Jack Ma’s Alibaba Group. The inquisition rapidly widened to Baidu, Didi Global, JD.com, Tencent and other top internet companies. The clampdown had some Wall Street banks debating whether China might be “uninvestable.”
In the months since Li took charge of reforms in March, the government has repeatedly promised to treat private sector companies on par with state-owned enterprises and increase outreach efforts with tech firm founders.
Yet a perceived lack of follow-through is drawing complaints about “promise fatigue,” including from the head of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China.